Oscar® Predictions for 2023 Movies

These are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2023:

• Picture: Oppenheimer
• Director: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
• Actor: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
• Actress: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
• Supporting actor: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer
• Supporting actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
• Original screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
• Adapted screenplay: American Fiction
• Cinematography: Oppenheimer
• Editing: Oppenheimer
• Animated feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• Documentary feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
• International feature: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
• Costumes: Barbie
• Makeup and hairstyling: Maestro
• Production design: Poor Things
• Score: Oppenheimer
• Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
• Sound: Oppenheimer
• Visual effects: Godzilla Minus One
• Animated short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
• Documentary short: The ABCs of Book Banning
• Live action short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

As has been true most years, I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees. This year I only saw one of those in a theater and the rest at home. My primary source was GoldDerby (the predictions by the experts, editors, top 24, and all-star 24).

The categories that seem to have the least consensus, with my backup predictions, are:

• Costumes: Poor Things (instead of Barbie)
• Production design: Barbie (instead of Poor Things)
• Animated short: Letter to a Pig (instead of WAR IS OVER!)

Other categories that have more consensus than those three but still less than most, with my backup predictions, are:

• Best actor: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers (instead of Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer)
• Best actress: Emma Stone for Poor Things (instead of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon)
• Adapted screenplay: Oppenheimer (instead of American Fiction)
• Animated feature: The Boy and the Heron (instead of Spider-Man)
• Makeup and hairstyling: Poor Things (instead of Maestro)
• Documentary short: The Last Repair Shop (instead of Book Banning)
• Live action short: Red, White and Blue (instead of Henry Sugar)

And of course almost all years there are one or more “sure things” that do not actually win.

Oscar® Predictions for 2022 Movies

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2022:

• Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Actor: Austin Butler for Elvis
• Actress: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Supporting actor: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Supporting actress: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Original screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Adapted screenplay: Women Talking
• Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Animated feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Documentary feature: Navalny
• International feature: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
• Production design: Babylon
• Costumes: Elvis
• Makeup: Elvis
• Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
• Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
• Visual effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
• Animated short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
• Documentary short: Stranger at the Gate
• Live action short: An Irish Goodbye

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and that is true again this year. I only saw two of those in theaters and the rest at home. My primary source was GoldDerby (the predictions by the experts, editors, top 24, and all-star 24). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are actor, supporting actress (especially this one!), score, documentary short, and live action short.

Oscar® Predictions for 2021

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2021 (excluding January and February due to last year’s extended eligibility window):

• Picture: CODA
• Director: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
• Actor: Will Smith for King Richard
• Actress: Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Supporting actor: Troy Kotsur for CODA
• Supporting actress: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story
• Original screenplay: Belfast
• Adapted screenplay: CODA
• Cinematography: Dune
• Editing: Dune
• Animated feature: Encanto
• Documentary feature: Summer of Soul
• International feature: Drive My Car (Japan)
• Production design: Dune
• Costumes: Cruella
• Makeup: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Score: Dune
• Song: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
• Sound: Dune
• Visual effects: Dune
• Animated short: Robin Robin
• Documentary short: The Queen of Basketball
• Live action short: The Long Goodbye

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and thanks to being able to watch almost everything at home (I braved a theater to see Licorice Pizza) and not being in the middle of a long distance move, that is true again this year. My primary source was GoldDerby (mostly the “experts” predictions). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are original screenplay, song, and editing. Best Picture also had a last minute swing from The Power of the Dog to CODA.

Oscar® Predictions for 2020

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2020 (and early 2021):

• Picture: The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
• Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Actress: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
• Supporting actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
• Supporting actress: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari
• Original screenplay: Promising Young Woman
• Adapted screenplay: Nomadland
• Cinematography: Nomadland
• Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Animated feature: Soul
• Documentary feature: My Octopus Teacher
• International feature: Another Round (Denmark)
• Production design: Mank
• Costumes: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Makeup: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Score: Soul
• Song: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
• Sound: Sound of Metal
• Visual effects: Tenet
• Animated short: If Anything Happens I Love You
• Documentary short: A Love Song for Latasha
• Live action short: Two Distant Strangers

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and thanks to being able to watch everything at home and not being in the middle of a long distance move, that is true again this year. My primary source was GoldDerby (mostly the “experts” predictions). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are actress, adapted screenplay, editing, and documentary short. There is fairly clear consensus that Nomadland will win Best Picture, but I am somewhat boldly predicting The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win because I think it will have an advantage with the preferential ballot used for that category. I’m also picking that movie for editing because the Academy seems to go for movies that have a lot of obvious editing. And lastly I’m picking Carey Mulligan over Viola Davis for actress primarily because Davis has won before.

Oscar® Predictions for 2019

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2019:

• Picture: 1917
• Director: Sam Mendes for 1917
• Actor: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
• Actress: Renée Zellweger for Judy
• Supporting actor: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
• Supporting actress: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
• Original screenplay: Parasite
• Adapted screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
• Cinematography: 1917
• Editing: Ford v Ferrari
• Animated feature: Toy Story 4
• Documentary feature: American Factory
• International feature: Parasite (South Korea)
• Production design: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
• Costumes: Little Women
• Makeup: Bombshell
• Score: Joker
• Song: “I’m Gonna to Love Me Again” from Rocketman
• Sound editing: 1917
• Sound mixing: 1917
• Visual effects: 1917
• Animated short: Hair Love
• Documentary short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
• Live action short: Brotherhood

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, but this has not been a normal year (as of when I’m posting this I’ve only seen three out of nine). My primary source was GoldDerby, and this year I didn’t have the time to consult more sources. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are editing, visual effects, and live action short.

Oscar® Predictions for 2018

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2018:

• Picture: Green Book (most people are predicting Roma)
• Director: Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
• Actor: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
• Actress: Glenn Close for The Wife
• Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali for Green Book
• Supporting actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
• Original screenplay: The Favourite
• Adapted screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
• Cinematography: Roma
• Editing: Vice
• Animated feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
• Documentary feature: Free Solo
• Foreign language feature: Roma (Mexico)
• Production design: The Favourite
• Costumes: Black Panther
• Makeup: Vice
• Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
• Song: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
• Sound editing: First Man
• Sound mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
• Visual effects: Avengers: Infinity War
• Animated short: Bao
• Documentary short: Period. End of Sentence.
• Live action short: Marguerite

My primary source was GoldDerby, though I also looked at metacritic. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are editing, production design, costumes (especially this one!), sound editing, and documentary short.

Oscar® Predictions for 2017

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2017:

• Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Director: Gillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
• Actor: Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
• Actress: Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Supporting actor: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Supporting actress: Allison Janney for I, Tonya
• Original screenplay: Get Out 
• Adapted screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
• Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (is the 14th time the charm for Roger Deakins?)
• Editing: Dunkirk
• Animated feature: Coco
• Documentary feature: Faces Places
• Foreign language feature: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
• Production design: The Shape of Water
• Costumes: Phantom Thread
• Makeup: Darkest Hour
• Score: The Shape of Water
• Song: “Remember Me” from Coco
• Sound editing: Dunkirk
• Sound mixing: Dunkirk
• Visual effects: War for the Planet of the Apes
• Animated short: Dear Basketball
• Documentary short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
• Live action short: DeKalb Elementary

My primary source was GoldDerby, though I also looked at PredictWise. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are picture, original screenplay, documentary feature, song, visual effects, and documentary short.

Oscar® Predictions for 2016

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2016:

• Picture: La La Land
• Director: Damien Chazelle for La La Land
• Actor: Denzel Washington for Fences
• Actress: Emma Stone for La La Land
• Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
• Supporting actress: Viola Davis for Fences
• Original screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
• Adapted screenplay: Moonlight
• Cinematography: La La Land
• Editing: La La Land
• Animated feature: Zootopia
• Documentary feature: O.J.: Made in America
• Foreign language feature: The Salesman (Iran)
• Production design: La La Land
• Costumes: La La Land
• Makeup: Star Trek Beyond
• Score: La La Land
• Song: “City of Stars” from La La Land
• Sound editing: Hacksaw Ridge
• Sound mixing: La La Land
• Visual effects: The Jungle Book
• Animated short: Piper
• Documentary short: The White Helmets
• Live action short: Ennemis Interieurs

My primary source was GoldDerby, though I also looked at PredictWise. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are actor, costumes, and documentary short (the last being a dead heat between The White Helmets and Joe’s Violin).

Oscar® Predictions for 2015

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2015:

• Picture: The Revenant
• Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu for The Revenant
• Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
• Actress: Brie Larson for Room
• Supporting actor: Sylvester Stallone for Creed
• Supporting actress: Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
• Original screenplay: Spotlight
• Adapted screenplay: The Big Short
• Cinematography: The Revenant
• Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Animated feature: Inside Out
• Documentary feature: Amy
• Foreign language feature: Son of Saul (Hungary)
• Production design: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Costumes: Cinderella
• Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Score: The Hateful Eight
• Song: “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
• Sound editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Sound mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
• Visual effects: Star Wars: Episode VII — The Force Awakens
• Animated short: Sanjay’s Super Team
• Documentary short: Body Team 12
• Live action short: Ave Maria

My primary sources were GoldDerby and PredictWise. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are costumes, sound mixing, and visual effects.

Oscar® Predictions for 2014

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2014:

• Picture: Birdman
• Director: Richard Linklater for Boyhood
• Actor: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything
• Actress: Julianne Moore for Still Alice
• Supporting actor: J.K. Simmons for Whiplash
• Supporting actress: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
• Original screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Adapted screenplay: The Imitation Game
• Cinematography: Birdman
• Editing: Boyhood
• Animated feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
• Documentary feature: Citizenfour
• Foreign language feature: Ida (Poland)
• Production design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Score: The Theory of Everything
• Song: “Glory” from Selma
• Sound editing: American Sniper
• Sound mixing: Whiplash
• Visual effects: Interstellar
• Animated short: Feast
• Documentary short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
• Live action short: The Phone Call

My primary sources were GoldDerby and PredictWise. Best picture and director are particularly challenging to predict this year.