These are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2023:
- Picture: Oppenheimer
- Director: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
- Actor: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
- Actress: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
- Supporting actor: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer
- Supporting actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
- Original screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
- Adapted screenplay: American Fiction
- Cinematography: Oppenheimer
- Editing: Oppenheimer
- Animated feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- Documentary feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
- International feature: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
- Costumes: Barbie
- Makeup and hairstyling: Maestro
- Production design: Poor Things
- Score: Oppenheimer
- Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
- Sound: Oppenheimer
- Visual effects: Godzilla Minus One
- Animated short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
- Documentary short: The ABCs of Book Banning
- Live action short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
As has been true most years, I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees. This year I only saw one of those in a theater and the rest at home. My primary source was GoldDerby (the predictions by the experts, editors, top 24, and all-star 24).
The categories that seem to have the least consensus, with my backup predictions, are:
- Costumes: Poor Things (instead of Barbie)
- Production design: Barbie (instead of Poor Things)
- Animated short: Letter to a Pig (instead of WAR IS OVER!)
Other categories that have more consensus than those three but still less than most, with my backup predictions, are:
- Best actor: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers (instead of Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer)
- Best actress: Emma Stone for Poor Things (instead of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Adapted screenplay: Oppenheimer (instead of American Fiction)
- Animated feature: The Boy and the Heron (instead of Spider-Man)
- Makeup and hairstyling: Poor Things (instead of Maestro)
- Documentary short: The Last Repair Shop (instead of Book Banning)
- Live action short: Red, White and Blue (instead of Henry Sugar)
And of course almost all years there are one or more “sure things” that do not actually win.
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