Oscar® Predictions for 2023 Movies

March 7, 2024

These are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2023:

  • Picture: Oppenheimer
  • Director: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
  • Actor: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
  • Actress: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Supporting actor: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer
  • Supporting actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
  • Original screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
  • Adapted screenplay: American Fiction
  • Cinematography: Oppenheimer
  • Editing: Oppenheimer
  • Animated feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
  • Documentary feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
  • International feature: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
  • Costumes: Barbie
  • Makeup and hairstyling: Maestro
  • Production design: Poor Things
  • Score: Oppenheimer
  • Song: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
  • Sound: Oppenheimer
  • Visual effects: Godzilla Minus One
  • Animated short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
  • Documentary short: The ABCs of Book Banning
  • Live action short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

As has been true most years, I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees. This year I only saw one of those in a theater and the rest at home. My primary source was GoldDerby (the predictions by the experts, editors, top 24, and all-star 24).

The categories that seem to have the least consensus, with my backup predictions, are:

  • Costumes: Poor Things (instead of Barbie)
  • Production design: Barbie (instead of Poor Things)
  • Animated short: Letter to a Pig (instead of WAR IS OVER!)

Other categories that have more consensus than those three but still less than most, with my backup predictions, are:

  • Best actor: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers (instead of Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer)
  • Best actress: Emma Stone for Poor Things (instead of Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon)
  • Adapted screenplay: Oppenheimer (instead of American Fiction)
  • Animated feature: The Boy and the Heron (instead of Spider-Man)
  • Makeup and hairstyling: Poor Things (instead of Maestro)
  • Documentary short: The Last Repair Shop (instead of Book Banning)
  • Live action short: Red, White and Blue (instead of Henry Sugar)

And of course almost all years there are one or more “sure things” that do not actually win.

Oscar® Predictions for 2022 Movies

March 10, 2023

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2022:

  • Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Actor: Austin Butler for Elvis
  • Actress: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Supporting actor: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Supporting actress: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Original screenplay: Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Adapted screenplay: Women Talking
  • Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Animated feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
  • Documentary feature: Navalny
  • International feature: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
  • Production design: Babylon
  • Costumes: Elvis
  • Makeup: Elvis
  • Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
  • Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
  • Visual effects: Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Animated short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
  • Documentary short: Stranger at the Gate
  • Live action short: An Irish Goodbye

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and that is true again this year. I only saw two of those in theaters and the rest at home. My primary source was GoldDerby (the predictions by the experts, editors, top 24, and all-star 24). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are actor, supporting actress (especially this one!), score, documentary short, and live action short.

Elon Musk, the Twitter Fiasco, and Mastodon

November 21, 2022

I’ve never been a huge fan of Elon Musk the man, but I love my Tesla and have been impressed by what SpaceX has been able to accomplish. I have a Twitter account, though I have rarely used it.

When Musk moved Tesla headquarters to Texas because he didn’t like the politics in California, it bothered me a little. Then when he announced that he was going to buy Twitter and started talking about allowing a certain unnamed ex-President back on the platform, I wasn’t happy. Musk apparently also retweeted a conspiracy theory about the attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and also tweeted that everyone should vote Republican in the midterms. Oh, and a series of children by several different women confirms that he is not the kind of person I would want to associate myself with.

And finally, for the moment anyway, when Musk took control of Twitter he gutted the company before he could even begin to understand which employees (and contractors) knew how to keep the platform running. I don’t know if it’s ignorance, arrogance, a desire to create a hard problem to solve, or all of those things, but it’s a total shitshow.

For me the outcome is that while I will still enjoy my Tesla, I will no longer recommend the brand to friends. There are other EV manufacturers out there. And while I have not deleted my Twitter account yet, I have deleted the Twitter app on my phone, requested my Twitter data (in preparation for deleting the account), and created a Mastodon account (@mweston@mindly.social).

Speaking of Mastodon, if you are interested in it, this article seems to offer a good summary. Your biggest hurdle is to pick a server. I opted for one based in the United States, since many foreign servers state that users must follow the laws of where the server operates, and I don’t feel comfortable promising to follow laws of another country without knowing what they are. I also wanted a server that was for general content rather than being specialized (e.g., technology), with a very high uptime history, with a middle of the pack number of users, and that was running a recent version of the Mastodon software. You of course may have different criteria. It is apparently possible to change servers or have accounts on multiple servers, and perhaps the most important point is that whatever server you choose, you will be able to follow (and be followed by) users on all other Mastodon servers. So don’t sweat the decision too much.

Oscar® Predictions for 2021

March 26, 2022

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2021 (excluding January and February due to last year’s extended eligibility window):

  • Picture: CODA
  • Director: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog
  • Actor: Will Smith for King Richard
  • Actress: Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • Supporting actor: Troy Kotsur for CODA
  • Supporting actress: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story
  • Original screenplay: Belfast
  • Adapted screenplay: CODA
  • Cinematography: Dune
  • Editing: Dune
  • Animated feature: Encanto
  • Documentary feature: Summer of Soul
  • International feature: Drive My Car (Japan)
  • Production design: Dune
  • Costumes: Cruella
  • Makeup: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • Score: Dune
  • Song: “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
  • Sound: Dune
  • Visual effects: Dune
  • Animated short: Robin Robin
  • Documentary short: The Queen of Basketball
  • Live action short: The Long Goodbye

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and thanks to being able to watch almost everything at home (I braved a theater to see Licorice Pizza) and not being in the middle of a long distance move, that is true again this year. My primary source was GoldDerby (mostly the “experts” predictions). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are original screenplay, song, and editing. Best Picture also had a last minute swing from The Power of the Dog to CODA.

Over the Hill at the 2021 Western States 100?

July 16, 2021

When I ran the iconic Western States Endurance Run in 2013, I started with an issue in my foot, namely a stress response (which is basically the precursor to a stress fracture) in a metatarsal. In those days there was no wait list, so I decided to give it a try since not starting wouldn’t let anyone else run. That injury turned into an actual stress fracture fairly early in the race, and it was also an especially hot year. As a result I was the very last person through several aid stations and eventually missed the cutoff at Devil’s Thumb (mile 47.8). That injury knocked me out of ultrarunning for over a year, because naturally I kept trying to come back before it was fully healed. By 2016 I was actually running better than I was before the stress response and fracture.

Seven years after that first attempt, I was scheduled to have another chance to run it, thanks to the Coastside Running Club, which runs the Auburn Lake Trails aid station at mile 85.2, entitling the club to an entry into the race. I belong, and volunteered with them many times at Western States and other runs, and got picked in a drawing for their 2020 spot. After an extra year of delay due to the pandemic, it was time to try again.

In the meantime, I had moved to Honolulu. I hired Travis Macy to coach me, and Dina Griffin for nutrition advice. And despite having turned 60 years old, I felt like I had a good chance at finishing this time. My plan targeted a 28-hour finish. The final cutoff is 30 hours, so that didn’t leave a ton of room for error, but I semi-secretly hoped to beat my plan.

But the day had its own plans. The early climbs had my heart rate higher than I wanted or expected, and despite that by the first aid station at mile 10.3, I was behind not only my plan but even the 30-hour pace: my plan was 7:29 AM, 30-hour pace is 7:40 AM, and my actual time was 7:54 AM. Ouch! By Robinson Flat (mile 30.3), my plan was 12:36 PM, 30-hour pace is 1:10 PM, and my actual time was 1:43 PM. They use air horns to tell you when you’re getting close to the cutoff, and I heard the 30- and 20-minute warnings there. It felt like I was ahead of where I was in 2013, but it turns out that the Robinson Flat cutoff has been extended by 20 minutes since then, so I was actually there at about the same time.

Over the next few aid stations I tried to make up time, hoping that if I could stay ahead of the cutoffs and maybe gain a little bit on them, the cooler night air might save me later. I did gain a little bit relative to the cutoff at Miller’s Defeat (the aid station after Robinson Flat), but all the way through Devil’s Thumb (mile 47.8) I was less than 30 minutes ahead of the cutoffs. And that means I remained well behind the 30-hour pace. I think it was also in the section leading to Devil’s Thumb that I first noticed that my stability was a little off, but I assumed it was temporary and ignored it.

On my way down to the next aid station (El Dorado Creek, mile 52.9), I started to wonder if I was leaning to one side (I can never tell for sure). “The Leans,” as I and others have come to call them, had been my downfall at the Tahoe 200. They were also a major issue in several other 100-mile races, when they had come on at mile 75 or later, and generally when I still had a time cushion. But for them to start at only the halfway point when I was also behind the pace needed to finish was going to be a Big Problem. I asked an El Dorado Creek aid station worker if I was leaning, and specifically requested that she be honest. Answer: Yes, I was leaning. Cr*p.

A key promise to myself and to others was that I would keep going until I either made it to the finish or was told I had to stop. So despite being almost certain that I would not be finishing, I continued on. In retrospect I suspect that I could have done this next segment somewhat faster than I did, but only by a little. As it was I arrived at Michigan Bluff (mile 55.7) just barely in time to get what I needed and leave before the final air horn blast signaling the station was closed. I was one of five runners who left in the last minute it was open, and (spoiler alert!) none of us finished (the last person to leave Michigan Bluff and finish was about eight minutes ahead of us, and that was the last woman through Michigan Bluff—lesson: women are tougher than men).

Actually, if a network of friends had not found a pacer for me, whom I first met there at Michigan Bluff, I probably would not have made it out in time, since she (Andrea) got the stuff from my drop bag while I got water. So in keeping with my commitment to keep going if I wasn’t forced to stop, I kept going.

That may not have been the best decision from a safety point of view, though I’m still glad I made it. I think. Besides the lean, I had started to have significantly reduced stability (well beyond the ignored warning sign I got before Devil’s Thumb). Poles and similar devices were specifically disallowed by race rules, so I resisted finding a stick for a while. Eventually at Andrea’s urging I relented, and it helped keep me from falling over a few times. Andrea also helped catch me more than once. Later the course sweeps caught up to us, and one of them took over that task from Andrea. I think I only fell all the way to the ground once, but if there hadn’t been a person, branch, or something else handy, I would have fallen several more times.

Since I was already way beyond the cutoff at the next aid station (Foresthill, mile 62.0), when Andrea found a cell signal she called a friend to pick us up when we reached Bath Road, saving me about a mile and a half of very slow walking. Once I was delivered to Foresthill I officially dropped (the aid station captain, who was there at least an hour after the cutoff, cut off my wrist band, making it official), and was reunited with my wife Connie, who was very relieved to see me. The dreaded DNF (Did Not Finish)…

Western States is a race that is very hard to get into. If I ever tried it again I would have to be even more sure I could finish it than I (erroneously) was this time. That seems extremely unlikely, since my preparation this time was quite thorough, and of course I’m also not getting any younger. So I will leave that spot for other runners. Note that a few years ago I made a similar decision about the HURT 100 race. And I’ll very likely also leave my DNF at the Bighorn 100 unavenged.

What will my running life look like from here on? I’m not sure yet. Because I have nine finishes in 100-mile races, I would like to get at least one more before I retire from that distance. I would like to continue to run some shorter ultras indefinitely. Fixed-time events (e.g., 24 hours) are attractive. I would like to run the Grand Canyon rim-to-rim-to-rim (preferably in one day, but I’m open to taking two days). I would like to improve my swimming enough to consider an iron-distance triathlon. I might want to train to run a marathon fast enough for Boston’s prior (up to 2012) qualifying standards (the new ones seem way out of reach). Figuring out the lean would obviously be good, and my prior assumption that it is purely about core strength does not seem to be correct. So I have rough plans, and my goal is to be less mono-focused.

Running, or even attempting to run, a 100-mile race is much easier when you have help. I had quite a bit, and so I would like to thank the following people, some of whom have already been mentioned above:

  • Connie, my very supportive wife and crew
  • Travis Macy, my running coach
  • Dina Griffin, my nutritionist
  • Andrea, my pacer from Michigan Bluff until close to Foresthill
  • David, a work colleague from many years ago, who would have been my pacer from Green Gate (mile 79.8) to the finish, if I had gotten that far
  • Dennis, a good friend who was willing to drive David to Green Gate in the middle of the night, and who in the days leading up to the race made at least two reconnaissance trips to make sure he knew where that was
  • The members of Coastside Running Club, who gave me the spot in the race

Oscar® Predictions for 2020

April 23, 2021

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for movies released in 2020 (and early 2021):

  • Picture: The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Director: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
  • Actor: Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Actress: Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
  • Supporting actor: Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah
  • Supporting actress: Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari
  • Original screenplay: Promising Young Woman
  • Adapted screenplay: Nomadland
  • Cinematography: Nomadland
  • Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
  • Animated feature: Soul
  • Documentary feature: My Octopus Teacher
  • International feature: Another Round (Denmark)
  • Production design: Mank
  • Costumes: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Makeup: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
  • Score: Soul
  • Song: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
  • Sound: Sound of Metal
  • Visual effects: Tenet
  • Animated short: If Anything Happens I Love You
  • Documentary short: A Love Song for Latasha
  • Live action short: Two Distant Strangers

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, and thanks to being able to watch everything at home and not being in the middle of a long distance move, that is true again this year. My primary source was GoldDerby (mostly the “experts” predictions). The ones that seem to have the least consensus are actress, adapted screenplay, editing, and documentary short. There is fairly clear consensus that Nomadland will win Best Picture, but I am somewhat boldly predicting The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win because I think it will have an advantage with the preferential ballot used for that category. I’m also picking that movie for editing because the Academy seems to go for movies that have a lot of obvious editing. And lastly I’m picking Carey Mulligan over Viola Davis for actress primarily because Davis has won before.

Podcasts

April 26, 2020

These are the podcasts I listen to, at least occasionally. Within each category they are roughly ranked. Since many people have more spare time during the pandemic, it seemed like a good time to write this.

In case anyone cares, I almost always listen using an app called Podcast Addict on my phone. It lets you download episodes to listen where reception might be spotty, keep a playlist of episodes you want to hear in the order you want to hear them, and have fine-grained control over the playback speed (I generally listen between 1.2 and 1.5 times normal speed). I used to listen primarily while driving, when I drove enough for that to make sense. Since retiring, and even more so during the pandemic, I listen mostly when running, using bone conducting headphones so that I can still hear my surroundings.

[Originally published on 4/26/2020, and updated on 5/14/2020]

Running:

  • Trail Runner Nation: The two hosts don’t take themselves too seriously, but still get real often enough to make it compelling. They also generally have good guests.
  • Running Stupid: This podcast is published pretty irregularly, and is often more stream of consciousness than planned, but I’m happy to say that the host is a friend.
  • Ultrarunner Podcast: The host has some obsessions and opinions that he has a hard time imagining anyone disagreeing with, but the range of guests is quite good.
  • Endurance Planet: I started listening to this before the current hosts took over in 2011, and before I found the other options above. Still, though, there are good nuggets often enough to keep me listening to most episodes.
  • For the Long Run: I wasn’t going to mention this one since I rarely listen to it, but since the host’s coach is David Roche, I do listen when he’s the guest. He (Roche) might be the most awesomely positive person I know of. Just today (4/26/2020) I was listening to him when I took a fall on a sidewalk, and right after that happened, Roche talked about saying yes, thank you when something bad happens.

Politics:

Movies:

  • Filmspotting: One of the if not the first podcast I started to listen to back when podcasts first came to the iPod in 2005. Filmspotting was called Cinecast back then, and had only been around for about 9 of their now 774 episodes. They review current movies, though definitely not all of them and with a focus on ones expected to be good. They also look back at older movies, and almost all episodes have a top five list, in the spirit of High Fidelity (which was set in Chicago, where this podcast is based).
  • The Next Picture Show: This is a spin-off of Filmspotting, and each pair of episodes compares and contrasts a current movie with an older film, such as Marriage Story with Kramer vs. Kramer. There are frequently spoilers, so don’t listen if you haven’t seen both movies and think you might want to someday.
  • The Treatment: This KCRW podcast almost always interviews people involved in a current movie or television show. Elvis Mitchell is the host, and often finds connections that the guests had never considered before.
  • Film Reviews: This KCRW podcast has short reviews of current movies.
  • Unspooled: The hosts review the AFI top 100 movies of all time. Sometimes one or both of them will not have seen the movie before, but they often have interesting guests who were involved in making the movie or have an interesting perspective on it.
  • Movie Crush: The host has guests (celebrities, to one degree or another) talk about their favorite movie in depth.

Money:

  • Planet Money: I first became aware of this podcast because of a 2008 episode of This American Life (see the “Other” category) called The Giant Pool of Money, about the financial crisis. The people who did that particular episode went on to create this podcast.
  • The Indicator from Planet Money: This is a spin-off from the main Planet Money podcast, runs every weekday, and is a short (under 10 minutes) look at some current financial story.

Growth:

  • The Happiness Lab: This is a Pushkin podcast (like four podcasts in the “Other” category), from a Yale professor who created a class about how to be happier. She uses actual science to point out ways that our brain often makes choices that make us less happy. She did one season, came back with many extra episodes to help people get through the pandemic, and season two has started.
  • One Extraordinary Marriage: I was looking for a podcast about improving marriages, and this is the best one I’ve found so far. The hosts are far more religious than I am, and it emphasizes sex a bit more than I would have chosen, but there are almost always good nuggets in every episode.
  • Unlocking Us: This is a new podcast from Brené Brown, which I heard about when she was on 60 Minutes recently. It’s not up to the level of her TED talk or her recent Netflix special (watch those if you haven’t already), but it’s still worth listening to.
  • Crooked Butterfly: This is done by a former special forces military guy, and is also tangentially about running. I originally heard him interviewed on Trail Runner Nation, and find his philosophy interesting, if a bit absolute/extreme, at times.

Beer:

  • The Beerists: This podcast seems good, though I’ve only listed to a couple of episodes so far.
  • Craft Beer Radio: This was a great podcast, but hasn’t published any new episodes since July 2019. I hope it returns someday.
  • Beer Guys Radio: This podcast is merely okay, but there aren’t many choices out there if you are not in the industry and don’t homebrew.

Other:

  • 99% Invisible: My wife turned me onto this Radiotopia podcast to listen to a couple of basketball-related episodes, about the introduction of the shot clock and the 3-point shot. But it’s so much more than that.
  • Against the Rules: This podcast by Michael Lewis (author of many excellent books including Moneyball and The Big Short) is from Pushkin. Season 2 recently started.
  • This American Life: If you know podcasts, or even public radio, you probably know this one already. I might have put it at the top of the “Other” list, but I wanted to give the first two more visibility.
  • Revisionist History: This podcast from Malcolm Gladwell (Outliers, The Tipping Point, etc.) is usually excellent. It’s part of the Pushkin family of podcasts.
  • Cautionary Tales: This is another Pushkin podcast, and is about things that went wrong. The host is Tim Harford, who is a frequent guest on other podcasts I listen to. Some parts are done as audio reenactments.
  • Wait Wait Don’t Tell Me: This should probably be higher, since my wife loves it. But for that reason I’ve mostly not listened to it so we have something to share for road trips. But now that we’ve moved to Hawaii there won’t be many of those, especially during the pandemic.
  • KQED Forum: I used to listen to more episodes of this, from the primary Bay Area public radio station, but still listen on occasion when the subject is one I want to learn more about from people I trust. The regular host, Michael Krasny, is a very good interviewer.
  • Twenty Thousand Hertz: This is a podcast about sounds, like the Wilhelm scream, which you should learn about if you haven’t already.
  • Solvable: At first I was really a fan of this Pushkin/Rockefeller Foundation podcast, about how to solve problems that seem unsolvable, like homelessness. But for whatever reason I haven’t listened to it recently. If I do, it could easily rise on this list.

Oscar® Predictions for 2019

February 6, 2020

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2019:

  • Picture: 1917
  • Director: Sam Mendes for 1917
  • Actor: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
  • Actress: Renée Zellweger for Judy
  • Supporting actor: Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Supporting actress: Laura Dern for Marriage Story
  • Original screenplay: Parasite
  • Adapted screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
  • Cinematography: 1917
  • Editing: Ford v Ferrari
  • Animated feature: Toy Story 4
  • Documentary feature: American Factory
  • International feature: Parasite (South Korea)
  • Production design: Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
  • Costumes: Little Women
  • Makeup: Bombshell
  • Score: Joker
  • Song: “I’m Gonna to Love Me Again” from Rocketman
  • Sound editing: 1917
  • Sound mixing: 1917
  • Visual effects: 1917
  • Animated short: Hair Love
  • Documentary short: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
  • Live action short: Brotherhood

Most years I have seen at least the Best Picture nominees, but this has not been a normal year (as of when I’m posting this I’ve only seen three out of nine). My primary source was GoldDerby, and this year I didn’t have the time to consult more sources. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are editing, visual effects, and live action short.

Oscar® Predictions for 2018

February 22, 2019

Here are my predictions for the Oscar winners for films made in 2018:

  • Picture: Green Book (most people are predicting Roma)
  • Director: Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
  • Actor: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Actress: Glenn Close for The Wife
  • Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali for Green Book
  • Supporting actress: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Original screenplay: The Favourite
  • Adapted screenplay: BlacKkKlansman
  • Cinematography: Roma
  • Editing: Vice
  • Animated feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
  • Documentary feature: Free Solo
  • Foreign language feature: Roma (Mexico)
  • Production design: The Favourite
  • Costumes: Black Panther
  • Makeup: Vice
  • Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Song: “Shallow” from A Star is Born
  • Sound editing: First Man
  • Sound mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Visual effects: Avengers: Infinity War
  • Animated short: Bao
  • Documentary short: Period. End of Sentence.
  • Live action short: Marguerite

My primary source was GoldDerby, though I also looked at metacritic. The ones that seem to have the least consensus are editing, production design, costumes (especially this one!), sound editing, and documentary short.

2018 4mph Challenge

March 26, 2018

A little over a year ago I had an amazing race at Coastal Trail Run‘s New Year’s One Day 24 hour race (no blog post for that one—sorry), ending up as first male with 105.4 miles (a woman from Japan went 106.5 miles), and so I was looking for another fixed time event. The Davis Two Day that a friend won last year was not held this year, so I went looking for something else. I found the 4mph Challenge, up in Whiskeytown, which is a little west of Redding, CA.

The format of this race is intriguing. I have heard of at least one other 4mph race, but in this case the route is a six mile out and a six mile back, with 90 minutes to finish each six mile leg. That’s four miles per hour. If you arrive early, you have to wait for the 90 minutes to expire before you can start the next leg. And if you arrive late your race is over. Note that I did clarify that while you can’t start a leg early, you can start late if you have something that needs attending to (like using the bathroom), but the 90 minute clock starts when it starts. There was one other clarification I should have asked about, but I didn’t realize it at the time.

In preparing I did a couple of simulations, one of 24 miles (six hours) and one of 12 miles (three hours). The biggest things I learned were 1) that 4mph is pretty slow, at least at first, and 2) to have a way to stay warm while you’re waiting for the next leg to start (a jacket for my upper body and a blanket for my lower body). I also worked on my nutrition plan, including when to take Vespa (30 minutes after every other stop, so at 3:30 elapsed and every three hours thereafter, to keep it separate from aid station eating).

The start was at 8 AM on March 17th, and it was quite cold. The forecast only called for a little bit of rain, but given the temperature I wore my rain pants, because they were the only long pants I brought for the race. I also wore arm warmers, gloves, and an ear band. The pants lasted until 12 miles (longer than I really needed them), while I think the gloves and ear band lasted until 24 miles. I kept the arm warmers with me for the whole race, in my pack if not on my arms.

The course was pretty much as advertised, with less than 400 feet of climbing per leg, and mostly but not entirely on trail. I feared that there might be a ton of mud since it had rained quite a bit the prior days, but other than a few puddles that required some care to go around, things were good. The course was also very pretty in spots. The “manzanita tunnel” was especially noteworthy, as were the frequent views of Whiskeytown Lake.

For maybe the first 30 miles everything went pretty much as expected. I pressed the lap button on my Garmin as each leg started, so that the lap speed could tell me how I was doing on pace. Since I had decided that I wanted between five and 15 minutes of rest time after each leg, that meant a pace between 12:30/mile and 14:10/mile. During these relatively early miles I was more likely to notice myself going too fast than too slow.

But eventually I started to realize that this race has a really unforgiving format. As the miles added up I was running more and walking less, and still taking a little longer to finish each leg. I have heard about “cardiac drift” for a long time, but since in most races I tend to slow down rather than let my heart rate go higher, I hadn’t really experienced it firsthand. But in this race slowing down was not an option. In most ultramarathons you expect problems and/or low spots to come up, but since the races are so long you have time to fix them. In this race there is little margin for error, at least for someone with my relative lack of speed.

At 42 miles (6:30 PM), Connie brought me my good flashlight, since the sun was going to come down before I got to 48 miles. At the 48 mile stop (8 PM) I should have gotten my gloves and ear band, but the sun had just come down, so it wasn’t cold yet.

My lowest goal was 54 miles, since I had considered running the Marin Ultra Challenge 50 instead of this race, and I figured it would be a shame if I got fewer miles here. The leg from 48 to 54 miles was “interesting” because partway through it became clear that I would need to use the bathroom when I arrived. That slowed me down, and I walked slightly more than I would have otherwise, but I did make it in time. And even better, I got in and out of the bathroom and got what I needed shortly before the next 90 minute period started at 9:30 PM.

I continued to slow down on the next leg, from 54 to 60 miles. This direction was typically slightly faster for me, but despite that my speed was close to my minimum target of 14:10/mile. The minor pain in my right knee that had been around most of the day was bugging me, and my motivation was dropping. I talked to another runner, and when I mentioned I would be running the Lake Sonoma 50 four weeks after this race, he said that he would probably have only signed up for 36 miles if he had that on his schedule. Excellent! Rationalization for stopping at 60 miles!

I got there with less than three minutes to spare, just before 11 PM. Connie was there, since I had been planning to swap GPS watches and take my daily pills. I tried to drop, saying that I didn’t expect to make it to mile 66 in time, but Connie and (I think) the Race Director talked me out of it. So I quickly swapped my GPS, grabbed some quesadilla, and left. I was about 45 seconds late leaving, intentionally skipping the daily pills, but not even thinking about the gloves or ear band until I was too far out of the aid station to consider going back for them.

The leg to mile 66 was in fact very cold. I had already given up on making it in time, and so I was moving fairly slowly, which didn’t help with warmth. On the short road section in the middle of the leg someone in a pickup truck wondered what was up, since it was almost midnight (I told him I was in a race, which he was probably skeptical of). At some point I set a goal of getting past a plank that was about 0.8 miles before the aid station before the other runners who would be coming the other way, so I didn’t have to wait for them. I achieved that easily, but eventually I did see the other runners. There were only six of them, so my first thought was that I would be more than okay with seventh place overall. (I later learned that two runners made it to 66 miles in time but did not continue, which means ninth was my best case scenario.)

When I arrived, I jogged around the parking lot since that was required to finish the six mile course, but I was about 11 1/2 minutes late (about 12:41 AM Sunday). The aid station workers and Connie got me warm by a small fire and with some broth and quesadilla, and we headed back to our rental after a stop at the other aid station to get my stuff. I had actually left my pack and flashlight on the chair at mile 66, so I had to come back in the morning for them.

The following day, a Monday, the results were posted, and I was surprised to see that I had only been credited with 60 miles, and was listed last of those who had 60 miles (I assumed because I was probably the last of those to arrive). I had thought that if you get to an aid station on time, head out for another leg, and then do not make it in time, you would still get credit for that final leg. But in clarifying e-mail with the Race Director I discovered that was not correct. This made me disappointed, since 17th place is a far cry from the seventh place I originally had in my mind, and also a little angry, since I wouldn’t have left the mile 60 aid station (and gotten so cold) if I had known.

Over time I’ve gotten more okay with it. I found out the order of the nine people credited with 60 miles was purely alphabetical, so that means I was in a nine-way tie for ninth place. Furthermore, all of the top eight people were younger than me. But will I run this unforgiving race again? At the moment I’m more inclined to find a more traditional fixed-time event, like the Davis Two Day I was originally looking for. But we’ll see…