The Oscar® nominations are out

In the 9 categories I predicted, there are 43 nominees, 36 of which I got right.

The biggest surprise was Dreamgirls being left out of both Best Picture and Best Director. And even though Dreamgirls had the largest number of nominations with 8, 3 of them were in the Best Song category. I would say that this might open the door for Little Miss Sunshine, which won at the Producers Guild of America Awards, to take Best Picture, but LMS was left out of the Best Director Oscar® nominations, so it’s still a horse race. We might have a clearer picture after the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday. Or maybe that will just muddy the waters further.

Going through the categories I predicted:

  • Best Picture (4/5): The spot everyone assumed would go to Dreamgirls went instead to Letters from Iwo Jima.
  • Best Director (4/5): Ditto, which means Clint Eastwood has a chance to ruin Martin Scorsese’s day again. Also, while I predicted that Paul Greengrass would be nominated for United 93, I actually thought that was wishful thinking more than a good prediction, so this was the nomination that made me happiest.
  • Best Actress (5/5): This went the way everyone expected.
  • Best Actor (4/5): The suprise here was not that Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated, but that he was nominated for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed. Perhaps this signals some softness for Departed‘s support?
  • Best Supporting Actor (4/5): My mistake here was that Mark Wahlberg got the nomination over Jack Nicholson, though either way it’s a vote for The Departed.
  • Best Supporting Actress (5/5): This went the way everyone expected.
  • Best Original Screenplay (3/5): This was the only category I missed more than one in. Stranger Than Fiction and Volver were replaced by Letters from Iwo Jima and Pan’s Labyrinth.
  • Best Adapted Screenplay (4/5): This category was unclear, but my only mistake was picking Thank You for Smoking over Children of Men. Again Dreamgirls was passed over, though it was not much of a surprise here.
  • Best Animated Film (3/3): This went the way I predicted, although the slot taken by Monster House was unclear.

It looks like predicting the winners is going to be a challenge this year.

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